Trending

SteadyNo clear rise or fall over the last three months.

Prediction markets

Last 3 months vs 3 before

-30%

vs same 3 months last year

+44%

Next 3 months, likely

-21% to +29%

Our stories this week

2

Weekly views of “Kalshi” (55%), “Polymarket” (34%), “Prediction market” (11%) on English Wikipedia, people only, from Wikimedia; the share is each article’s part of the last three months. The dashed line carries the last six months’ growth forward; the band is the middle 60% of how far off that was over the past year, across every category. Checked on 1,008 past quarters: the trend line was typically 22% off, and assuming nothing changes was 18% off, so the plain guess did as well or better: read the range, not the line. How categories work